Both models tackle multi-country exposures
Catastrophe risk modelling firm EQECAT and reinsurance broker Aon Benfield have both unveiled Asian typhoon models.
EQECAT's offering, which will be launched on July 31, is designed to provide a holistic view of risk across the entire western Pacific basin. The area covered includes Japan, China, Taiwan, South Korea, the Philippines, Thailand and Malaysia and is known for producing some of the world’s most intense tropical cyclones, EQECAT said.
In addition to capturing relevant spatial correlations, as individual typhoon events can affect multiple countries, the model factors in the direct effects of wind, storm surge and typhoon rainfall-induced flooding. The model also considers variation in local building practices, design, and building codes.
Aon Benfield's model, developed by its Impact Forecasting unit, covers the Asian typhoon exposed regions of China, Hong Kong, India, Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam, including tropical cyclones generated in the Northern Indian Ocean and the North West Pacific Ocean. Aon Benfield said it has been developed to provide insight for companies with multi-territory exposures including regional insurers, global reinsurance buyers and reinsurers.
The Aon Benfield model produces estimated losses for residential, commercial, engineering and industrial classes;building structure, contents and business interruption; and structural damage from wind, effects of storm surge on coastal regions and water damage as a result of a tropical cyclone rain.
In addition to its new Asian typhoon model, EQECAT plans to release an updated US earthquake model, also on July 31.
The updated model, USQuake, implements the 2008 US Geological Survey earthquake model and uses both ‘soil-based attenuation’ and ‘three-dimensional vulnerability’ modelling approaches. EQECAT says these two innovations accurately capture physical phenomena while eliminating bias.
According to EQECAT, soil-based attenuation assumes soil as the reference site condition. The firm said this approach requires far less adjustment for site conditions, thus minimising uncertainty introduced by soil amplification factors.
To capture the increased susceptibility of a building once damaged, USQuake represents vulnerability for wood-framed residential structures using a three-dimensional surface, rather than the conventional two-dimensional curve.
The two models are part of EQECAT’s WORLDCATenterprise 3.15 release. The updated release also includes updated time-dependent probabilities for earthquakes in Latin America due to stress redistribution following the M8.8 earthquake in Chile, and updated Canadian postcodes, a new results comparisons feature and improved analytic performance through the use of 64-bit analysis engines.