Verisk lifts global yearly insured cat loss benchmark to $171bn

Global insured catastrophe losses are now expected to average $171bn annually, according to Verisk, up $19bn from a year ago and its highest estimate to date.

The figure represents Verisk’s modeled global insured average annual loss (AAL), rather than a forecast for 2026.

The increase comes despite 2025 recording no US hurricane landfalls for the first time in a decade, with global insured cat losses nevertheless exceeding $100bn for a sixth consecutive year.

Rob Newbold, president of Verisk Catastrophe and Risk Solutions, said: “A quiet hurricane season can lead markets to respond as if risk has eased: rates soften, insurers keep more risk on their own books, and more capital competes to write new business.

“But 2025 reminds us that the underlying risk landscape has changed and years without significant losses from US hurricane activity no longer signal a quieter catastrophe environment.”

The US accounts for $117bn, or 68%, of Verisk’s $171bn global insured AAL.

Severe thunderstorm is the largest contributor, representing 40% of modelled insured catastrophe risk, ahead of tropical cyclone at 27%, earthquake at 10%, winter storm at 9%, flood at 7% and wildfire at 6%.

Verisk estimated that aggregate insured losses could reach $477bn at the 100-year return period and $606bn at the 250-year return period.

Since the report was first published in 2012, the global insured AAL has nearly tripled from $59bn, although Verisk noted the increase also reflects expanded model coverage and advances in modelling alongside exposure growth.

Property exposure across the countries covered by Verisk’s models has grown around 7% annually since 2021, while US residential reconstruction costs have increased roughly 5% per year.

Jay Guin, executive vice president and chief research officer at Verisk Catastrophe and Risk Solutions, said: “The $171 billion figure is not determined by the outcome of one hurricane season or one year of catastrophe losses.

“It reflects a wide distribution of potential events across perils and regions, using current exposure data and a view of hazard grounded in the near-present climate.”

Verisk also highlighted a persistent global protection gap, estimating only around 38% of natural catastrophe economic losses are insured.

In Europe, modeled annual economic catastrophe losses exceed $110bn, but only around $24bn, or 22%, is insured.

“Narrowing the protection gap requires broader access to insurance and a clear understanding of the risk,” Newbold said. 

Verisk’s full report is available here.