Property/casualty insurance industry results should be relatively strong from 2004 through 2007, according to a new study by Conning Research and Consulting.
"Our latest projections indicate a slightly better 2004 for the property/casualty industry than had been anticipated," said Clint Harris, analyst at Conning Research & Consulting. "While we expect property/casualty industry performance to degrade somewhat over the following three years, it will still be strong by historical standards."
The Conning Research report, "Property-Casualty Forecast & Analysis by Line of Insurance-Second Quarter 2005," provides projections of key underwriting and financial results for the entire property-casualty industry as well as the major lines of business, including personal auto, homeowners/farmowners, commercial auto, workers' compensation, commercial multiperil, general liability, non-proportional reinsurance, medical malpractice, fire & allied, and inland marine.
"Our detailed forecast for the property-casualty industry and its major lines of business, which we update each quarter, includes our first look at 2007," said Stephan Christiansen, director of research at Conning Research & Consulting. "In the next three years we expect lower premium growth as competition heats up, though moderately strong economic growth and the growing impact of information technology, in the form of underwriting models in personal lines and small commercial business, should temper the effect of competitive pricing. On the other hand, economic growth will also create some upward pressure on loss costs due to line-specific inflation. Finally, we do not anticipate significant additions to loss reserves at the industry level, other than for asbestos."