European windstorms are complicated, difficult to model perils, but as James Webb explains, models are increasing in sophistication and quantification of uncertainties is improving.
Loss Modelling for Windstorms is a relatively young discipline that has evolved from purely statistical (Pareto) models fitted to loss history, to deterministic “what-if,” or “probable maximum loss” scenarios, and now to today’s fully probabilistic models of ever increasing sophistication.
EQECAT’s assessment of European windstorm loss potential indicates a 100-year return period risk of over €28bn. Such extra-tropical cyclones/windstorms are highly complex events, unlike tropical cyclones such as North Atlantic hurricanes.
To read the full white paper, please download the PDF attachment (Better understanding of a key peril).