The research will look at the medium-term time forecast horizon, using machine learning techniques
Aeolus Capital Management and the State University of New York at Albany Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences have announced the launch of a research collaboration.
The hurricane-focused study, led by Dr Pete Dailey, Head of Research at Aeolus and a renowned expert in climate catastrophe model development and analytics, will be a quantitative study aiming to better understand the leading indicators of hurricane development and tracking.
The research will be specifically looking at the medium-term time horizon (the period between short-term weather forecasts (days) and climate projections (several months/years).
Dailey said, “By applying machine-learning techniques such as Self-Organising Maps to hurricane data, the goal is to identify weather and climate patterns that signal risk before hurricanes strike.
“The insights we hope to take away from this study should advance our scientific understanding of hurricane risk and, ultimately, lead to better portfolio management decisions.”
Dr Robert Fovell, Professor of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences stated, “This is an important study into hurricane risk projections that looks to bridge the gap between short-term weather forecasts with lead times of a few days and medium-term climate projections with lead times of several months, with a specific focus on landfalling hurricanes.
”We look forward to our partnership with Aeolus to help improve our understanding of hurricane formation and movement.”