Back to a ‘weak’ Category 2 hurricane with 105mph winds - Eqecat
Hurricane Bertha has regained its strength after initially shrinking back into a tropical storm on Tuesday.
Forecasters at the US National Hurricane Centre said the hurricane was about 600 miles south-east of Bermuda, with sustained wind speeds of 105mph.
Catastrophe modelling agency Eqecat said the hurricane is not expected to make landfall in Bermuda, neither will it reach the US or Caribbean. Instead, it will track to the east of Bermuda, with the closest approach in 3 to 4 days.
Bertha brings a 20-30% probability of tropical storm winds in Bermuda, an approximate 10% probability of winds in excess of 50-knots and a low probability of hurricane force winds in Bermuda.
Eqecat said Bertha had previously attained Category 3 intensity which was “a little high for this time of year” when compared to historic data. However, Eqecat added that Bertha “does not seem that incredible” when forecasters consider estimation uncertainty for offshore storm intensity estimates.
June and July account for less than 7% of all "major landfalling hurricanes in the US between 1851 and 2006". September is the most active.
Consistent with the above, re-simulations of historic storms 1900-2007 upon the 2008 US Insured Market Exposure show that more than 95% of all cat losses occur in the period August through October, and all events that would exceed $10 Billion have occurred in this time frame.