Balance shifts towards buyers at 1.1 – Antares’ van der Straaten

Upcoming 1 January reinsurance renewals are shaping up to be defined by stability on one hand, and intensifying competition on the other.

Mike van der Straaten, CEO of Antares Global, said that while reinsurers are aiming to maintain pricing discipline, the balance of power is beginning to tip back towards buyers.

“We anticipate stability in the reinsurance market, with reinsurers aiming to maintain pricing discipline,” said van der Straaten (pictured).

“Increased competition and gradually returning capacity are expected to exert downward pressure on rates. As capital availability expands, cedents may benefit from modest improvements in terms—particularly for non-peak zone risks—though sustaining price adequacy will be more challenging in a competitive environment,” he added.

According to van der Straaten, assuming losses stay within model expectations, “a gradual easing of terms in the cat market is likely.”

Retro softening

The most striking shift has been in retrocession. “The property retrocession market is currently buyer-favourable, with significant price softening in 2025—rates fell more sharply than in primary catastrophe reinsurance,” van der Straaten said.

He pointed to capital inflows from both traditional reinsurers and alternative vehicles.

“Capacity supported by catastrophe bonds and sidecars has strengthened supply, meeting continued strong demand from inflation and growing catastrophe exposures,” he said.

“Overall, conditions point to competitive pricing and accessible retro protection, with stable pricing and steady capacity expected in 2026 unless major catastrophes or capital withdrawals occur.”

Casualty and specialty under scrutiny

In casualty, van der Straaten noted, “so-called good years are under scrutiny as reserve deterioration in prior accident years raises doubts about previous optimism.

Competition for business and strong cedent relationships have limited reinsurers’ ability to push ceding commissions, a dynamic likely to continue unless casualty capacity tightens.”

Specialty markets remain challenged. For aviation, he said reinsurers require “transparency around exposure accumulation and clear war exclusions,” stressing the importance of stronger controls, clearer policy wordings and coordinated responses to geopolitical conflict.

On cyber, van der Straaten said growth has slowed but risks remain. “Systemic risk and aggregation potential are still key concerns. Reinsurers can respond with tighter coverage terms, disciplined pricing, real-time threat monitoring and ongoing innovation in cyber modelling to manage portfolio volatility.”

Political violence is another line adapting to heightened instability. “Reinsurers seek improved scenario modelling, clearer war-on-territory exclusions and stricter underwriting in unstable regions, with dynamic pricing structures reflecting rapidly changing risks,” he explained.

Trade, energy and longer-term challenges

Trade credit, political risk and marine cargo are being closely monitored, van der Straaten added, given the effects of global tariff negotiations, supply chain disruption and protectionism.

He also highlighted pressures in renewable energy. “Competition is driving down rates and loosening terms, raising concerns where technological development may outpace risk understanding. Reinsurers must prioritise underwriting discipline and long-term sustainability over short-term premium gains.”

Longer-term, persistent inflation and geopolitical instability are likely to keep markets unsettled.

“These trends may create capital market volatility and impact investment returns, insured values and loss costs,” van der Straaten warned.

“In the cat market, climate change and secondary perils remain a priority, with exposure to systemic risks in supply chains and infrastructure likely to surprise markets unprepared for sudden shifts in frequency or severity.”

Despite these uncertainties, he stressed Antares’ commitment to stability and partnership.

“We at Antares remain stable and committed to our broker and client partners. We are in a positive mood, with a strong foundation to develop our business further and navigate the market conditions in the forthcoming years,” he added.