QBE: Asia marine risks diverge as climate, labour and cargo pressures intensify

Asia’s marine sector is facing a widening gap between headline risks and how they are experienced across different parts of the market, with climate, labour shortages and cargo exposures driving a more complex risk landscape, according to QBE.

In its report, “Braving New Worlds: The QBE Marine Insurance Risk Outlook for Asia 2026”, the insurer argues that risk is becoming increasingly uneven, with blue-water operators, regional fleets and logistics providers exposed in very different ways.

“Risk exposure varies significantly across the industry, QBE emphasises.

“The operating realities of blue water container shipping differ materially from those of a brown water tugboat or a regional trading vessel.”

The outlook, based on six months of research and underwriting insight, identifies five core themes shaping the market: environment, manpower, technology, geopolitics and cargo.

Climate pressures

Extreme weather is emerging as a defining risk across the region, the report stresses.

QBE points to a clear increase in both the frequency and severity of events, particularly across the Pacific, where typhoon activity is already the highest globally.

“The frequency and intensity of these storms appears to be rising,” the report notes.

This is driving a range of operational impacts, from vessel collisions and port congestion to cargo loss and route disruption.

Rising sea temperatures are also creating more technical risks, with cooling systems on vessels increasingly operating beyond their original design limits, raising the likelihood of machinery failure and downtime.

At the same time, operators are venturing into new routes such as the Northern Sea Route, exposing fleets to unfamiliar hazards and limited emergency response capabilities.

Manpower shortages

Labour constraints are compounding these pressures, according to QBE.

QBE highlights high turnover across the seafaring workforce, with more than half of crew expected to change employers within three years, alongside a projected shortfall of nearly 90,000 officers globally in 2026.

“The number of officers is rapidly declining,” the report warns.

Chronic understaffing and rising workloads are increasing fatigue risk, which is already a contributing factor in around a quarter of marine casualties.

“Fatigue remains a persistent industry concern,” QBE adds, noting that existing regulatory safeguards are struggling to keep pace with operational realities.

This is feeding through into higher operating costs, disruption to voyages and supply chains, and upward pressure on freight rates.

Tech creating uneven risk exposure

The report also highlights a divergence in technology risk.

While digitalisation and automation are improving efficiency for larger, blue-water operators, they are also increasing exposure to cyber threats.

“The increased connectivity of various assets increases risk exposure to cyber-attacks,” QBE says.

At the same time, smaller or less digitised operators face a different risk profile, often with lower exposure to targeted cyber attacks but still vulnerable to opportunistic incidents.

The transition to new fuels, including hydrogen and ammonia, is adding further complexity, introducing unfamiliar technical risks and increasing training requirements for crews.

Geopolitics and trade volatility 

Trade dynamics and geopolitical tensions are adding another layer of uncertainty.

US tariffs and shifting trade policies are expected to reduce freight volumes and disrupt supply chains, while also increasing insured cargo values and premiums.

“Higher import costs from tariffs tend to reduce consumer demand… meaning fewer goods are shipped,” the report notes.

Conflicts and sanctions are also reshaping shipping routes and increasing costs, with recent tensions in the Middle East highlighting the vulnerability of key chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz.

War and terrorism risks are driving higher security costs and operational disruption, while slowing port activity and trade flows.

Vessel fires

Cargo-related risks are also escalating, particularly around vessel fires.

QBE points to a sharp rise in incidents, with container ship fires increasing significantly in recent years as hazardous cargo volumes grow.

Between 2020 and 2023, such fires rose from 26 to 40 incidents, with further increases recorded in 2024.

A key driver is the growing volume of mis-declared cargo.

“Almost 25% of all serious incidents on container ships are attributable to mis-declared cargo,” the report says.

At any given time, an estimated 18,000 containers at sea may contain mis-declared goods, limiting the ability of crews to respond effectively to onboard incidents.

Against this backdrop, QBE argues that the role of marine insurers is evolving beyond traditional risk transfer.

“The remit of insurers has also expanded enormously in recent years,” the report says.

Carriers are increasingly providing risk engineering support, technical guidance and operational insights, helping clients to manage both established and emerging exposures.

By combining underwriting expertise with forward-looking risk assessment, insurers are positioning themselves as long-term partners in resilience, rather than purely transactional providers.

“By combining technical expertise with forward-looking risk assessment, we work with customers to understand these exposures early and develop appropriate, sustainable insurance solutions,” QBE adds.