Aviation industry struggles to define and address emerging risks, Willis report finds

Only three in ten senior aviation executives believe their organisations’ current strategies are equipped to address the emerging risk landscape of the next decade, according to new research from Willis.

The report, “Understanding emerging risks in the aviation industry”, surveyed 130 senior industry representatives. It found that only half of respondents expressed confidence in their organisation’s resilience to today’s emerging risks — and just 30% believe their business models will remain fit for purpose over the next ten years.

Alarmingly, 80% of decision-makers and 90% of those implementing risk strategies could not clearly identify their company’s own definition of emerging risk.

Nearly half of respondents (49%) were unable to name their organisation’s top five emerging risks, the research revealed.

The report highlights key areas of concern, including climate transition, geopolitical instability, cyber threats and artificial intelligence.

Climate change was named by 29% of respondents among their top five current emerging risks. That figure rises to 50% when asked about the decade ahead, with fixed-asset operators such as airports and cargo handlers seen as particularly exposed.

Geopolitical and economic risks were the most consistently cited concerns across all timeframes — immediate, short-term and long-term. The report notes links to financial shock, government policy, trade sanctions and an apparent unmet demand for insurance products to manage these exposures.

Cyber risk is another major worry. It was named by 11% as the top current risk — equal to supply chain threats — and remains prominent over longer timescales. The use of AI was identified as both a risk and a potential risk mitigation tool, particularly regarding minor incidents that contribute to attritional insurance claims.

AI was considered the leading immediate risk by 36% of respondents, but its perceived relevance dropped sharply over longer horizons. One airport executive cited a “dual concern” — the risk of using AI versus the risk of falling behind by failing to adopt it.

The industry’s structure may facilitate relatively rapid adoption of new technologies, given the collaborative nature of data sharing around safety. But the report warns that without coordinated strategic planning, many aviation firms could miss opportunities to improve resilience and performance.

John Rooley, CEO of Willis Aviation & Space, said: “The challenges we face today in the aviation industry, whether it’s the business implications of AI, cyberattacks, disruptions to the global supply chain or energy transition, demand a re-evaluation of how we perceive and manage emerging and interconnected risks.

“But our survey shows that aviation experts, traditionally superb at long-term planning that accommodates fleet renewals, infrastructure development and regulatory compliance, have been struggling to define the emerging risk landscape.

“The time has come to take a proactive stance and align planning with a forward-thinking approach that embraces adaptability and resilience.”