Escalating ‘intensity of hail’ in SCS events driving claims costs and motor damage – Perils

The “intensity of hail events” within severe convective storms (SCS) has escalated, with larger hail diameters between 5cm and 7cm causing “really severe” property and motor damage, bumping up claims costs, according to Christoph Oehy, chief executive at natural catastrophe data firm Perils.

Speaking exclusively to Global Reinsurance during this month’s Rendez-Vous de Septembre (RVS) conference in Monte Carlo, Oehy explained that the severity of the hail element within SCS events occurring in middle latitude geographies – such as Europe, Canada, Japan and the US – has increased due to a perfect storm of amalgamating conditions, in turn driving “billion dollar” insured loss incidents.

For example, he noted that the size of hail itself has increased due to warmer weather conditions, with Perils now recording hail with diameters between 5cm and 7cm. Subsequently, bigger hail has the potential to cause “really severe” damage.

Information published by the University of British Columbia in 2025 helps to put this in perspective. It stated that “most hailstones are in the 0.5cm to 1.5 cm diameter range”, with “rare” giant hail classified as being between 1.9cm and 5cm in diameter. The institution added that typically, only 25% of hailstones have diameters larger than 1.5cm.

Alongside larger hailstones, Oehy added that there is also an “increase in exposure” – especially the “concentration of exposures with urbanisation”, such as vehicles – as well as “vulnerabilities becoming more vulnerable”. Oehy pointed to solar panels installed on property roofs as an example here, commenting that these can currently typically withstand hailstones with diameters sized 2.5cm.

He continued: “If an event happens, then losses tend to be bigger than what they used to be in the past. That drives [an] increase in insured loss.

“We have started to collect exposure data for property and motor, because motor is a very important component there as well, and just a week ago, we released the first loss estimate for the convective storms [in] mid-July that hit France, Germany, Switzerland [and] Italy. [This amounted to] almost €2.2bn.

“[This is] definitely the peril that keeps us busy.”

Secondary peril symptom

Hail is a “main contributor” of “bigger” secondary peril SCS events, Oehy explained, with other possible storm elements including flood, wind and tornadoes.

Considering that primary peril incidents in 2026’s first half have been quieter, he said, hail has become “very important” and “stands out even more” where SCS events have “contributed significantly” to claims costs.

“There was less activity on the peak peril side and a lot of activity on the secondary ones,” Oehy noted. “So, it really stands out even more that this is an area that can contribute significantly and is important to watch.”

He added that SCS events including hail that took place between 2022 and 2024 across Italy, France, Germany and Canada have been “billon dollar” insured loss incidents.

For Oehy, it is not just property as a line of business that is vulnerable to severe hail – motor “is quite exposed to hail” too.

He said: “In Canada and Australia, 20% to 40% of an event can [impact] motor, but it’s also largely [dependent] on the event – whether a hail event happens on a weekend or during the week, or what time of day and so on.

“That’s a component which is a bit special about the hail peril.”

Taking mitigating steps

Oehy suggested that the re/insurance market could do more to mitigate detrimental impacts resulting from SCS.

He explained: “Solar panels on the roof, they withstand typically 2.5cm of hail. Spending 10% more [and] making them much more resistant to bigger hail, that’s probably something we will have to adapt in the future.

“So, getting used to such events and being able to adapt [and] mitigate them. That aspect will become more and more important as well.

“Losses [are] increasing and society [has] to pay that that loss ultimately. We have to adapt and try to mitigate some of it.”

Perils is practising what it preaches here, with Oehy confirming that the business is integrating a hindcast – a way of testing a computer model by running it against data from the past to see if its results match what actually happened – for hail impacting property in Australia, as well as “short-term forecasting services for winds and storm in Europe, Japan [and] Australia” into its platform to provide “more functionalities”.

He is aiming for this work to be completed by the end of the year or into early 2027.

As for what else is on Oehy’s to-do list, he told Global Reinsurance: “We’re currently working on developing forecasting for Canada, for the wind side, and then for hail in Europe and in Canada.

“A lot of effort and investment currently goes into getting those up and running because that’s a valuable application of our exposure data to say ‘ok, we have this market exposure data, [what] could an event look like given the current weather forecast’ so that’s something we’re working on.”