The research arm of MAPFRE has nudged its forecast for global economic growth higher, with inflation set to moderate
MAPFRE Economics has raised its growth forecast for this year in its latest report, Economic and Sectoral Outlook 2025: Perspectives for the Second Half of the Year.
The global economy is expected to grow 2.9% in 2025, two tenths higher than the forecasts made a few months ago, and 3% for next year, with inflation expected to be 3.4% and 2.9%, respectively,
The research unit, part of Fundación MAPFRE, cited a softening in the impact of trade policy tensions and geopolitical shocks that had clouded the macroeconomic picture earlier in the year.
“Although uncertainty remains elevated, the effect on global growth has so far been reasonably innocuous,” the report said.
Regional performance
The outlook for the US has been revised down to 1.7% GDP growth in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026. Inflation is forecast at 3% this year and 2.6% next year.
MAPFRE warned that higher financing costs, linked to weaker appetite for domestic bonds, present a key short-term risk to the US economy.
The eurozone is expected to eke out modest growth of 1% in 2025 and 1.1% in 2026, with inflation of 2% and 1.8%.
The report highlighted that monetary easing by the European Central Bank is beginning to filter through to real activity, offering some support.
Emerging economies remain the strongest growth engine, with GDP expansion of 3.5% projected for 2025 and 3.4% for 2026. Inflation is set at 4.1% and 3.6%.
Latin America is expected to grow by 2.1% this year and 2% next year, although inflation remains elevated at 8.8% in 2025 and 8.1% in 2026, reflecting price dynamics in Argentina.
Asia-Pacific is forecast to expand by 4.5% in 2025 and 4.3% in 2026. MAPFRE Economics upgraded its outlook for China by four tenths, with GDP growth of 4.4% this year and 4.2% next.
The report noted resilience despite continued real estate sector weakness, though consumer demand remains uncertain amid low inflation.
Insurance market implications
The report underlined the link between macroeconomic conditions and insurance sector performance. Global life premiums are forecast to rise by 6.2% in 2025, compared with 5.2% growth in non-life.
For 2026, life growth is expected to ease to 6%, while non-life expands by around 5.3%. MAPFRE Economics said this reflects both easing inflationary pressures and a more flexible financial environment, offset by the persistence of geopolitical risks and evolving economic policies in major economies.
“These dynamics directly influence the risk perception of households and companies, and therefore their insurance decisions,” the report said.
The analysis points to a continued divergence between life and non-life segments, with demographic factors and long-term savings trends underpinning demand for life cover. Non-life markets are meanwhile more exposed to cyclical shifts in investment and consumption, and to policy uncertainty.
Macro backdrop for insurers
Overall, MAPFRE Economics argues that global insurers face a more benign macroeconomic backdrop than earlier in 2025, as disinflation gathers pace and central banks adopt looser monetary stances.
Despite this, persistent political and policy volatility remains a drag on confidence and could temper the insurance sector’s expansion.
“Even as inflationary pressures ease, the international risk landscape remains complex, requiring careful management by both policymakers and insurers,” the report added.
No comments yet