WTW and University of Exeter enter new phase of windstorm risk research

WTW and the University of Exeter have marked two decades of collaboration by launching a new phase of research into European windstorm risk, with a focus on how climate variability over seasonal to decadal timescales may influence storm activity and insurance outcomes.

The renewed partnership aims to bridge a critical gap between short historical datasets and longer-term climate projections by enhancing understanding of the next five to ten years of windstorm risk—an area of increasing concern for the re/insurance market.

Windstorms remain among the costliest natural perils in Europe, with losses fluctuating sharply from year to year due to storm clustering and shifting meteorological patterns.

Recent seasons have featured impactful events such as Storms Poly, Eunice and Éowyn, challenging long-held assumptions about storm timing and geography.

WTW said many catastrophe models remain limited by reliance on either brief historical records or distant climate scenarios, failing to capture the full range of plausible extremes in the near term.

The new research phase will investigate how emerging signals from seasonal and decadal prediction systems can inform insurance pricing, capital allocation and exposure management, particularly in western European markets.

“We’re excited to mark 20 years of impactful collaboration with the University of Exeter,” said Dr Daniel Bannister, weather and climate risks research lead at WTW.

“For almost two decades, our work together has helped shape how the (re)insurance industry understands windstorm risk.

The focus now is on what the climate will bring over the next five to ten years, and how we can use emerging signals to help our clients make better-informed decisions.”

The partnership, which began in 2006, has already produced several breakthroughs. Under the leadership of professor David Stephenson, it delivered one of the first statistical models to simulate storm clustering—an innovation that has become a benchmark for catastrophe modelling.

More recently, the partners developed new methods for estimating wind gust return values using storm footprint data, which are now integrated into WTW’s climate risk platform. These tools are helping to refine expectations of how European windstorms may evolve as the climate changes.

Professor Stephenson said the collaboration had shown how applied research could drive real-world impact for insurers.

“I am so proud of what this ongoing collaboration has achieved since 2006,” he said.

“Cutting-edge ideas from climate and statistical science have been used to address key industry challenges, and these challenges have in turn inspired interesting new research areas such as storm clustering,” he added.