The reinsurance broker comments on the traditional start of the North Atlantic Hurricane Season for 2025, suggesting extreme weather will be on the way, as the re/insurance industry watches for the first storm to make landfall.
Acrisure Re has forecast an “above average” Atlantic hurricane season for 2025, though activity is expected to be less severe than the record-breaking 2024 season.
The reinsurance arm of global fintech Acrisure published its latest Pre-Season Hurricane Outlook on 30 May, drawing on analysis from its catastrophe modelling and analytics teams. The outlook follows a highly active 2024 season, which included five major hurricanes, notably Helene and Milton, which caused widespread damage across the Southeastern and Mid-Atlantic United States.
Ming Li, partner and global head of catastrophe modelling at Acrisure Re, said the firm’s research pointed to a continuation of heightened storm activity.
“Current indicators, including above-average Atlantic sea surface temperatures and a projected neutral ENSO phase, point to an average to slightly above-average North Atlantic hurricane season in 2025,” he said.
“As these conditions continue to develop, Acrisure Re is closely watching the data to help clients prepare and respond with greater precision and confidence.”
The forecast highlights three key variables underpinning the outlook. First, while sea surface temperatures across the Atlantic are cooler than those observed last year, they remain higher than long-term averages—supporting elevated levels of storm activity.
Second, a neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is expected, which would reduce the likelihood of wind shear that typically suppresses hurricane formation.
Lastly, the Sahel region appears to be experiencing average conditions, with Saharan dust not expected to significantly inhibit storm development.
Simon Hedley, chief executive of Acrisure Re, also linked the forecast to broader implications for reinsurance pricing.
“The January 2025 renewal season saw US property catastrophe reinsurance rates decline by 5% to 15% on a risk-adjusted basis,” Hedley said. “Mid-year Florida renewals also saw rates decline even further from last year.”
He added that pricing dynamics for the 2026 renewal season would be shaped by storm losses this year.
“As always, Acrisure Re will be monitoring the tropics and providing real-time updates both before and after any potential events using our suite of tools and analytics,” said Hedley.
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