The reinsurance broker provided its annual Lloyd’s of London syndicate analysis, revealing that syndicate momentum has shifted to smaller players amid premium slowdown.
Lloyd’s posted another £10bn profit in 2024, but Howden Re’s latest syndicate analysis warns that momentum is shifting fast—both in terms of growth drivers and market composition.
According to the reinsurance broker’s report, “momentum slowed in 2024, with price changes contributing only 0.3% to premium growth vs. 7.2% in 2023.”
Gross written premiums came in at £55.5bn, falling short of the £57bn forecast. This reflects a significant change in dynamic: while earlier years were defined by strong rate hardening, current growth is “predominantly volume-driven.”
Underwriting profitability remained robust despite a 3-point increase in the combined ratio, caused mainly by a rise in catastrophe losses. That was partly offset by a 1-point improvement in attritional losses. As a result, Lloyd’s recorded its second straight year of £10bn profit, thanks in part to strong investment returns.
Howden Re’s analysis also highlights a strategic rebalancing across syndicates.
“Momentum shifts away from the largest markets towards small/medium syndicates and new entities,” the report notes, citing a 22% year-on-year increase in capacity among small syndicates and 14% among medium ones. Eleven new syndicates launched in 2024—the most in five years.
Property and reinsurance lines led premium and profit growth.
Property accounted for 29% of GWP and 44% of underwriting profit, while reinsurance comprised 32% of GWP and 36% of profit. This strength came despite increased volatility. “Due to volume growth and fewer attritional losses, property lines continue to be the most profitable in Lloyd’s,” the report said.
Not every class shared in the upswing. Casualty reinsurance saw weaker conditions due to inflation-driven claims uncertainty and geopolitical risks. For third-party liability lines, Beazley experienced an 8.1% compound decline in GWP across its 2623 syndicate, while Aspen and Ascot posted strong growth rates of 32% and 30.7% respectively.
Some syndicates are actively repositioning their strategies. Hiscox 33 “reduced its position in casualty due to adverse pricing trends,” while TMK 510 plans to expand its cyber excess of loss and tech performance books. Ariel 1910 also reported plans to grow in non-property classes. The impact of specific events such as the Dali Bridge collapse in Baltimore was also apparent: Atrium 609 reported £64.1m in gross losses and £7.3m net from the incident, contributing 7.6% to its gross loss ratio.
The top 10 syndicates—by premium—posted their strongest underwriting performance in five years, improving their average net combined ratio by four points from historical norms. This came despite multiple large losses from events such as hurricanes Helene and Milton and the Baltimore bridge collapse.
Despite slower overall momentum, the report presents a bullish outlook for 2025, with Lloyd’s GWP expected to hit £60bn. However, the report stresses the importance of maintaining pricing discipline and warns that “pricing growth will be an important factor in maintaining profitability moving forwards.”
As the syndicate landscape evolves and smaller players gain ground, Howden Re’s assessment underscores both the opportunities and pressures facing Lloyd’s in its current cycle.
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