Moody’s RMS estimates up to $5bn insured losses from Hurricane Melissa in Jamaica

Insured losses from Hurricane Melissa in Jamaica are likely to range between $3bn and $5bn, according to Moody’s RMS.

The Category 5 storm was the most severe to strike the island in decades, causing widespread destruction to homes, infrastructure and businesses.

Jeff Waters, director of North Atlantic hurricane models at Moody’s RMS, described Melissa as “a generational event for Jamaica”.

“It will be the storm that defined the 2025 North Atlantic hurricane season,” he said, adding: “repairs and recovery will inevitably go through significant supply chain challenges, even as several key ports on the island remain operational.”

Waters added: “For these reasons, we expect recovery efforts to take several months, if not years.”

Moody’s RMS said its estimate covers insured losses from property damage and business interruption across residential, commercial, industrial and motor lines.

Losses are primarily driven by wind, with minor contributions from flooding and storm surge.

The figure also includes post-event loss amplification and other non-modelled sources of loss.

Economic losses could exceed Jamaica’s GDP of around $20bn, amplifying the island’s recovery challenge.

Resilience contrast

Last week Moody’s put out a briefing warning of the large uninsured and underinsured losses likely to emerge in Jamaica in the aftermath of Melissa striking the Caribbean island.

Moody’s RMS noted a stark contrast in building resilience.

Insured properties are generally well built and more resistant to wind, while many uninsured homes are of lower construction quality and more vulnerable to damage.

Insured losses in other affected Caribbean territories, including the Bahamas, Haiti, and Turks and Caicos, are expected to be minimal.

Moody’s RMS is separate from Moody’s Ratings, the credit ratings agency.