Tariffs outweigh conflict concerns in latest Willis political risk survey

Economic policy risks continue to outweigh concerns around armed conflict for global businesses, according to the latest annual political risk survey from Willis.

The ninth annual Political Risk Survey Report found that 61% of respondents viewed the impacts of rising tariffs as the most difficult political risk issue to manage.

The same proportion said their company had experienced a negative financial impact from tariffs.

The survey was released as conflict in the Middle East escalated, but respondents still ranked tariffs above international violent conflict as a core concern.

The report also found that the share of respondents reporting credit and political risk insurable losses from geopolitical causes was the second highest in the nine-year history of the survey.

For the third consecutive year, related losses exceeded $250m, while interest in political risk and trade credit insurance continued to increase.

Willis also found that 39% of companies believed they faced higher risks because of the policy choices of their home government.

Meanwhile, 84% said they were either actively preparing for, or considering preparing for, a future in which “Eastern” and “Western” parts of the global economy may need to operate independently.

Economic coercion, including sanctions, tariffs and export embargoes, was ranked as the leading “gray-zone aggression” concern by 61% of firms.

Attacks on infrastructure, including undersea cables, pipelines and power stations, remained the top overall concern for 65% of respondents.

Sam Wilkin, director of political risk analytics at Willis, said: “It’s surprising that while conflict in the Middle East dominates the headlines, the effects of tariffs continue to dominate business concerns.

“But this finding is in keeping with other trends portrayed by our survey sample. The political risk map of 2026 is not simply a map of war zones.

“It is a map of contested systems – trade systems, technology systems, information systems and domestic political systems.

“For globalised business, political risk is becoming less about exposure to a handful of unstable places, and more about exposure to an increasingly unstable world order.

“This report shines a light on what companies find hardest to manage in this geopolitical landscape that is changing so fundamentally.”

The report can be downloaded here.