Verisk launches reengineered US hurricane model

Verisk has launched a major update to its US tropical cyclone model, delivered through its new cloud-native Synergy Studio platform.

The catastrophe model update is intended to improve how hurricane risk is assessed across insurance, reinsurance and capital markets.

Verisk said the updated model integrates advances in climate science, hazard and vulnerability, providing a more realistic view of individual risks and portfolio exposure.

The model will be available from 15 June 2026 and will be delivered exclusively through its Verisk Synergy Studio.

The updated US tropical cyclone model reflects a near-present view of hurricane risk, grounded in recent tropical cyclone behaviour and impacts.

Verisk said it combines an updated stochastic event catalogue, peer-reviewed wind-field methodology and a comprehensive reevaluation of vulnerability.

The model is designed to better capture how hurricanes behave today and how that translates into loss, including storm surge in coastal areas and rainfall-driven inland flooding.

Rob Newbold, president of Verisk Catastrophe and Risk Solutions, said: “Insurance leaders are navigating a more complex and interconnected risk environment than ever before.

“The updated US tropical cyclone model and Verisk Synergy Studio are designed to support those decisions, providing a more defensible view of risk on a modern platform that helps organizations assess exposure, manage capital, and operate with confidence in today’s climate.”

Verisk said the model adopts a single near-present view of tropical cyclone risk, reflecting the impact of global warming and natural variability in the Atlantic Basin.

The framework also supports more flexible climate sensitivity analysis, while remaining grounded in established science and physical plausibility.

The update includes modernised tropical cyclone hazard modelling, with enhanced representation of wind fields, storm surge and inland flooding.

Verisk said this improves simulation of storm structure, land interaction, event duration and the physical realism of sub-perils that have driven outsized losses in recent US hurricane seasons.

The model also includes enhanced vulnerability modelling to reflect how modern buildings and infrastructure withstand peak hurricane winds and event duration.

Verisk said the update improves differentiation between older and newer structures, capturing factors that influence how similar storms can produce different damage and recovery outcomes.

A reengineered stochastic event catalogue has also been introduced to capture a broader range of plausible tropical cyclone behaviour, including tropical storms and extratropical transition.

Jay Guin, chief research officer at Verisk, said: “This update reflects years of advances in atmospheric science, hazard modeling, and loss validation.

“By incorporating a near present view of climate conditions and improved representations of wind, storm surge, and flooding, the model provides a more realistic picture of how hurricanes behave and how losses may occur today, not decades ago.”

Verisk said the model has undergone external evaluation, including academic peer review and publication of the new hurricane wind-field methodology.

The new event set and vulnerability modules were also reviewed by independent experts.

The company said the process complements internal scientific validation and reflects the level of rigour required for risk assessments that inform public and private decision-making.

Verisk Synergy Studio is designed to unify catastrophe modelling, exposure management and risk analytics in a single environment.

The platform supports larger and more complex portfolios, high-performance computing, modern workflows and open, non-proprietary exposure data formats.

Verisk said pairing the model with Synergy Studio will enable more frequent model updates and stronger integration with enterprise risk workflows.

The Verisk tropical cyclone model for the US was developed by AIR Worldwide Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Verisk Analytics.