Pool Re’s latest report finds the UK threat level remains “substantial”, with lone actors and simple methodologies dominating risk, even as higher-end capabilities persist at the margins

The UK terrorism threat level remains “substantial”, meaning “an attack is likely”, according to Pool Re’s Annual Terrorism Threat Report 2025.

Pool Re terrorism report cover

That assessment is grounded in sustained operational pressure from security services.

The balance of the threat picture remains heavily weighted towards Islamist extremism, Pool Re observed.

Pool Re is Great Britain’s terrorism reinsurance fund, a public-private-partnership for insurers, operating on a newly-changed treaty reinsurance model, buying onwards protection within the commercial reinsurance markets, and ultimately backed by a UK Treasury guarantee.

“Since January 2020, MI5 and the police have disrupted 19 late-stage attack plots in the UK,” the report states.

“It is almost certain that Islamist terrorism remains the primary terrorist threat to the UK at this time, accounting for approximately 75% of MI5’s counterterrorism caseload,” Pool Re said.

However, the report stresses that the most probable form of attack is not complex or technologically advanced.

“It is highly likely that any terrorist attack conducted in the UK at this time would be conducted by an individual or a small cell using a low sophistication methodology,” it said.

Pool Re points to methods such as “Bladed or Blunt Force Weapon, Vehicle as a Weapon, Fire as a Weapon” as the most realistic attack vectors facing the UK.

This emphasis on low sophistication does not imply an absence of more capable plotting.

“There is a realistic possibility that terrorist actors in the UK could have the capability to conduct a high sophistication attack at this time,” the report said.

That includes scenarios involving an “improvised explosive device (IED), or firearms attack”.

Crucially, Pool Re links higher complexity with greater opportunities for intervention.

“The complicated nature of plotting a high sophistication terrorist attack makes it highly likely that there will be greater opportunity for UK police and security services to disrupt potential attacks,” it said.

The report also addresses emerging concerns around cyber and unconventional weapons.

“There is a remote chance that any terrorist actor would currently have the capability to conduct a significant terrorist attack using cyber means in the UK,” Pool Re concluded.

Similarly, the risk of chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear attacks (CBRN) is assessed as extremely low.

“There is a remote chance that any terrorist actor would currently have the capability to conduct a high-sophistication CBRN attack due to the significant barriers which currently exist in the acquisition, production, and delivery of CBRN agents,” the report added.

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