Political risk report from WTW says US tariff deals are redrawing alignments and creating a new risk environment for internationally exposed companies
The global trade system shifted dramatically in 2025 as a wave of US tariff deals reshaped market access and forced countries to weigh national-security alignment against economic opportunity, Willis has warned.
A new edition of the Political Risk Index from Willis, part of WTW, says geopolitical positioning is now central to risk management for internationally exposed firms.
The report, headlined “Mapping the new geopolitics of tariff deals”, stresses t hat Washington is pressuring partners to align with national-security priorities or face punitive barriers.
Through a series of maps, it charts the emerging trade landscape and the strategic implications for multinationals.
The study draws on analysis from country experts at Oxford Analytica and finds that tariff deals are effectively building a “moat” around Western economies.
Many agreements require signatories to adopt US export controls, improve supply-chain security, and tighten rules of origin and trans-shipment monitoring.
These measures will take time to apply, the report says, but could limit companies’ ability to adapt by re-routing supply chains.
The deals are also raising the stakes in East-West competition, Willis warned.
Vietnam, Cambodia and Ecuador have shifted closer to the Western bloc, the broker observed, agreeing to enforce US export controls.
Argentina meanwhile secured an aligned partner deal after its political pivot to the right.
Major economies including Brazil, India and South Africa have not signed deals, leaving their future alignment uncertain.
This could have significant consequences for foreign companies operating in those markets, WTW suggested.
Several agreements also include “poison pill” clauses that could lead to sudden ejection from the Western tariff system.
Retaliation has so far been limited, the broker’s report noted.
In contrast to the Trump administration’s first-term tariffs, only China and Canada have responded significantly to the 2025 measures, and both continue to do so.
The report adds that early reactions in some countries, such as Brazil and Indonesia, ranged from outrage to diplomatic concern.
Many governments quickly reframed the issue as a competitive race for favourable tariff terms to attract investment.
The study also highlighted a shift in Africa, where reduced US aid and the non-renewal of key trade preferences are contributing to realignment towards Russia and other non-Western partners.
This trend, it says, will have major implications for firms with frontier-market exposure in such territories.
Sam Wilkin, director of political risk analytics at Willis, said companies have been “astonishingly adept” at reconfiguring supply chains in response to changing tariff rates.
“But companies also need to manage the geopolitics of tariffs,” Wilkin said.
“Our latest research highlights how tariffs can no longer be treated as a compliance or operational issue but need to be embedded at the core of strategic planning,” he added.
No comments yet